It’s that time of year again. Time to brag about work well done or tuck tail in total dishonor. With only days remaining in 2011, the previous predictions once meant to define 2011 must be evaluated. Personally speaking, I believe the Nostradamus blog attempt reflects a successful report card – something I’ll happily prance home this holiday season to request parental signatures. Self-serving statistics? Maybe, however I think 7 for 11 bad is pretty damn impressive.
If you haven’t read the January 3rd 2011 post titled, “11 Music Predictions For 2011” I would advise doing so, otherwise best of luck making sense of this.
1. Prediction -Companies Will Hold Stake In Artists
Outcome: Partially Correct
I can’t reward full credit for this prediction simply because companies haven’t necessary “taken stake” in artist, however they continue to shed sizeable funds by corporately underwriting music projects. For example, Converse opened Rubber Studios in order help indie music projects. Are they asking for royalties? No, but companies are trusting bands to generate a hands off promotional grass roots tactic that penetrates a niche market on their behalf. I will parlay this prediction into 2012 as I believe companies will figure out ways to fund projects, offer stock options or integrate marketing techniques while chomping off percentage points from music sales.
2. Prediction - Major Labels Will Adapt
Outcome: Partially Correct
“Adapt” is subjectively used here. Despite the EMI/Sony/Warner merger and sales ping pong game, I believe the major labels had a pretty good year adjusting to the market.
3. Prediction - Shelf Space With Big Box Retailers – REDUCED
Outcome: Nailed It!
This really wasn’t difficult to figure out. As the Best Buy v. Major Label price point debacle will inevitably reach it’s boiling point early 2012, I believe shelf space for CD’s will be coming closer to a complete exit. Vinyl however is a totally different story. With increased sales of 36.5% in 2011, retail outlets will more than likely latch onto this temporary trend in order to offset the CD decline.
4. Prediction - Big Box Retailers Outside Of The United States – INCREASE
Outcome: Correct
This one is debatable but I’m taking credit for it. Australian retailer JB Hi-Fi continues to increase locations and has done a fantastic job providing digital services as well. As Australia may not be the perfect litmus test, Europe is a total crap shoot. Some countries had retailers die while others thrive. What about the Asian market you ask – wait for it – I’ll be getting to that in my 2012 predictions.
5. Prediction - Artist Development Will Once Again Exist
Outcome: Correct
It’s comforting to witness progression this year. Despite what people think, success in the music world doesn’t happen overnight as there is a long evolution that requires certain platforms for accomplishment. Many of the Top 40 Acts from 2011 had long roads before “making it.” Chalk up a victory for artist development in 2011.
6. Prediction - New Genres Will Generate Mainstream Impacts
Outcome: Correct (I’m pretty much a wizard)
Several genres gained success (i.e. – Dubstep for starters), but the rapid acceptance for electronic/house music in The United States is happening at a creepy pace. When was the last time a DJ was discussed within Grammy circles? When was the last time a DJ booked multiple dates at Madison Square Garden? This warm embrace has been surprising but not impossible to predict. The United States has remained decades behind Europe’s mainstream acceptance of electronic music so the trend was bound to strike at some point.
7. Prediction - The European Market Will Level Out
Outcome: Failed
Certainly some countries are feeling the economic blow coupled with streaming services chopping up sales, but to boldly state the market has leveled out would be inaccurate.
8. Prediction - Traditional Managers Will Be Weeded Out
Outcome: Failed
Not only was this prediction wrong, it was way wrong. Simply gauging from the amount of management contracts I reviewed in 2011, managers are eager to take on new duties and they have also embraced a greater amount of work typically delegated to other parties.
9. Prediction - Entertainment Attorneys Must Adapt
Outcome: Failed
Collectively, we’re a group assholes. From what I’ve seen, a majority of firms still attempt to collect bloated retainers while focusing solely on traditional legal work. Hopefully 2012 will bring new standards and widespread implementation but I’m doubtful.
10. Prediction - The Australian Market Will Continue To Amaze
Outcome: Correct
Who are we kidding; Australia is like an industry fantasyland. Tour season is lively, the economy is booming, the amount of homegrown talent generating global appeal climbs with each passing day, and I’m pretty sure unicorns exist there. As the Australian music infrastructure continues to be perfected, Australia could become a self-sustainable industry giant.
11. Prediction - Canada Picks Up Steam
Outcome: Failed
I would like to say the Canadian market has picked up steam, but outside of monster releases from Michael Bublé and Nickelback I can’t site substantial growth with releases or touring. However don’t count out Canada just yet. I’m certain the talent and infrastructure is currently in place to make an impact within the next few years.
Martin F. Frascogna is an entertainment attorney who specializes in international entertainment law representing clients in 23 countries spanning 6 continents. He consults with several labels both domestically and internationally in efforts to expand rosters and sponsorships into the appropriate global territories. Frascogna will be speaking at the MIDEM Conference in Cannes France January 28-31 2012. Follow on TWITTER - @frascognamusic, view speaking schedules, or e-mail at: mff@frascognalaw.com or marty@frascognamusic.com
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