11 Music Industry Predictions For 2011

As the 2010 music door shuts, what does 2011 hold in store? This is a loaded question given the music industry delivers monumental changes almost daily; but nonetheless a question that must be answered in order for professionals to plot course moving forward. Mainstream music publications view the industry in territories, not globally, so you won't find answer to these questions in your everyday reading. Lucky for readers, I’m a international entertainment buff and geared up and ready to answer the above, so if you want global predictions given an eye towards global trends, you’re in the right place. Sit back, enjoy, and don’t take these predictions with a grain of salt – they will be the 2011 playing field.

1. Companies Will Hold Stake In Artists
Because so many companies are now adopting the Apple advertising model by using relatively unknown musicians in product campaigns, partnership expectations will also change. This will lead to companies expecting 360° deals just like the labels. For example, if Nike makes the collective decision to break an artist by dropping their tunes in an upcoming commercial, Nike will now expect to have a percentage stake in digital and physical sales for X amount of time. It’s an inevitable partnership now that businesses clearly understand the parallel between advertising and music.

2. Major Labels Will Adapt
Major labels have adapted to industry change about as well as I can ice skate. 2011 will be different. iPad, and it’s soon to be rivals will be the change catalyst. The new creations are making it clear to labels that that digital music and the vehicles of delivery are not a fade. Because of this, Apps can’t be ignored. He who holds the money contains control, and unfortunately (or fortunately) major labels still control the money. This means they’ll redirect their funds, stop fighting the digital warfare and begin pumping major money into App development to break their roster. 2011, expect more interface between gaming and music using Top 40 artists.


3. Shelf Space With Big Box Retailers – REDUCED
Walmart, Best Buy, and Target have already made substantial reductions to their physical music shelf space. This will continue. Instead of carrying the standard Top 40 albums, trends indicate the big box stores will ink only exclusive partnerships and carry heritage acts who have a long sales history.

4. Big Box Retailers Outside Of The United States - INCREASE
As buying trends for U.S. retailers dwindle to scary levels, Australian, Asian, and some remote European stores dominate physical sales. Why? Several contributing factors (ie: economic) but primarily because the vital relationship between non-traditional retailers and musicians has yet to explode in overseas territories. This will lead to a continuation of traditional sales methods (ie: big box stores).

5. Artist Development Will Once Again Exist
The label retaliation against poor industry figures has historically been to invest less and less into developing musicians in order to sustain long-term careers. The result, you see quick famed one hit wonders and lots of junk on the radio. Because labels will seize the opportunity by increasing their annual budgets by investing in Apps, labels will once again focus on developing sustainable careers – not one hit wonders. Likewise, A&R will once again become relevant which will lead to an increase in music industry jobs.

6. New Genres Will Generate Mainstream Impacts
The U.K. has been the latest genre maker by taking underground beats and spinning them into mainstream success through licensing contracts. As this may not be monumental at the moment, it does indicate there is a potential trend to accept non-mainstream genres for advertising campaigns.

7. The European Market Will Level Out
European musicians have made the largest dent in the global market. As American groups once controlled the Billboard charts, now European bred artists make up over a quarter. In most cases, European musicians have more crossover appeal in the States rather than their homeland. However, 2010 year end statistics revealed markets leveled out. Meaning, European musicians, because of their success abroad, are gaining popularity momentum in their respected home countries. This ultimately means European musicians no longer need American fans to be successful so touring and marketing efforts will remain close to home.

8. Traditional Managers Will Be Weeded Out
Just as labels have been forced to adapt, managers and their respected models will also be forced to change. Management models, meaning – how managers manage groups, break bands, pitch musicians to labels and generate exposure – must adapt. Why? This worked when groups wanted to sign with labels. The progression was clear – obtain a local/regional following, secure radio airplay in that given area and use these statistics to negotiate with labels. Now, nobody wants to be associated with labels. Musicians are their own labels. Managers must accept this. Getting an act signed used to be the management payoff. Now, managers must find different revenue streams to be successful.

9. Entertainment Attorneys Must Adapt
It’s remarkable that anyone can be more hardheaded than label executives, but entertainment attorneys take the cake. Seeing I’m an entertainment attorney I cringe with that remark! Somehow attorneys figured they could continue charging the same astronomical hourly rates given the economic landscape, and further, musicians today feel as if they don’t even need attorneys. Well the truth is musicians need entertainment attorneys more so than another else on their creative team, however they need a good entertainment attorney who understands the new industry playing field and works on a budget.
*For further explanation, my door is always open and my e-mail is checked three times a day – I’ll be happy to discuss: marty@frascognamusic.com

10. The Australian Market Will Continue To Amaze
Australia dominated the music world closing out 2010, and this trend will continue with a vengeance in 2011. With a strong indie label market, solid distribution outlets, and a fan base who goes bananas for live music, Australia will further separate themselves from the flailing world economy.

11. Canada Picks Up Steam
I’m constantly asked, “where is the next big market,” and I always reluctantly answer. This year it’s been easy for me to answer Canada. Why? Because the American music market is leveling out in terms of accepting international musicians, labels have yet to make a solid leap into actually signing international acts. With this said, Americans will fill this void very conservatively. As opposed to signing international acts which labels can’t afford to groom, American labels will look towards their neighbors up North. Canada, unfortunately for many Americans is considered “foreign” (musically speaking) and American fans have an intriguing attraction to Canadians. Couple that with unique radio pockets, talents musicians, and potentially strong tour venues due to their close proximity to the American border, and you’ve got a stew of success for 2011.


Martin F. Frascogna is an entertainment attorney who specializes in music globalization (ie: expanding fan bases and international markets). He consults with several labels both domestically and internationally in efforts to expand rosters and sponsorships into the appropriate global territories. Martin mainly works with indie level musicians who operate on a shoestring budget. Allowing musicians to budget for legal services as opposed to billing high rates has lead Frascogna to have clients in 11 countries on 6 continents. Feel free to contact - Martin F. Frascogna (marty@frascognamusic.com)